Which Careers Are Declining?

The currents of the modern labor market are undeniably shifting, leading to a predictable yet often unsettling phenomenon: the decline of certain occupations. While the economy perpetually creates new roles—fueled by technological advancement and changing consumer demands—it is equally efficient at rendering others obsolete. Understanding which careers are contracting, and by what margin, offers vital context for anyone navigating a professional life in this era of transformation. Data tracking these trends, often projected over a decade, shows a consistent pattern driven primarily by technological substitution, whether through software automation or physical robotics.

# Clerical Contraction

Perhaps the most pronounced area of expected contraction lies within traditional office and administrative support roles. These are roles whose core tasks—filing, scheduling, data transcription, and correspondence—are increasingly managed by software and digital platforms.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projections highlight this severity. For instance, the occupation of Word processors and typists is forecast to see one of the steepest percentage declines, shedding over a third of its employment, around 36.1%, between 2024 and 2034. Similarly, Telephone operators face a projected decline of nearly 27.5%, and Switchboard operators face a 26.3% drop over the same period. CareerOneStop data echoes these severe relative losses for typists and telephone operators.

When comparing these percentage declines to absolute numbers, a crucial distinction in economic impact emerges. While a highly specialized role like a Roof bolter, mining is expected to shrink by 34.2%, the impact on sheer numbers of workers is often felt more acutely in high-volume occupations. Statista and BLS data show that Cashiers are projected to see the single largest absolute decline, losing over 313,600 jobs by 2034. This indicates that while niche jobs are being eliminated quickly in relative terms, the largest number of displaced workers will come from high-volume, entry-level service and administrative sectors.

Data Entry Keyers also fall into this high-volume decline category, projected to lose over 36,000 positions, representing a 25.9% reduction. Even roles slightly higher up the administrative ladder, such as Payroll and timekeeping clerks, are expected to lose about 17% of their jobs, a significant contraction from a relatively large base. The World Economic Forum (WEF) confirms that clerical roles, administrative assistants, and even accountants and auditors are among those expected to see a sharp fall due to broadening digital access.

# Frontline Displacement

Beyond the cubicle and back office, roles centered on routine customer interaction or simple transaction processing are also facing significant headwinds.

Telemarketers are explicitly named as a job facing extinction by 2030 due to AI-driven chatbots and automated marketing systems taking over routine outreach. This trend is reflected in official projections: the BLS estimates a 22.1% decline for telemarketers between 2024 and 2034. Furthermore, Customer service representatives are listed by the BLS as having one of the largest absolute declines, with over 153,000 positions projected to be lost. The WEF notes that AI and information processing technologies are a primary driver of this change, impacting jobs that handle standardized responses.

In the retail sphere, Cashiers are overwhelmingly projected to see the largest numerical decline, with self-checkout technology acting as the primary mechanism for replacement. Similarly, Tellers in banking face a projected decline of nearly 13% as digital banking platforms reduce the necessity for in-person transaction handling. The underlying theme across these roles—from the telephone operator to the bank teller—is the substitution of predictable, rules-based human interaction with more efficient, lower-cost digital interfaces.

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# Industrial Reconfiguration

The decline is not limited to the digital realm; heavy industry and traditional manufacturing processes are also shedding roles due to technology and shifts in resource extraction priorities.

The mining sector features prominently in the relative decline charts. Roof bolters, mining, show a massive projected drop of 34.2%. This is likely tied to both declining reliance on underground mining operations in some regions and increased automation within active sites.

In manufacturing, jobs involving repetitive assembly or manual finishing are diminishing. Foundry mold and coremakers are projected to decrease by about 26%. Furthermore, various setter, operator, and tender roles related to metal and plastic work, such as those operating lathes, milling machines, and grinders, all face declines ranging from 18% to over 21%. Engine and other machine assemblers also show an approximate 21% reduction. The WEF report suggests that robots and automation, in general, are forecast to displace 5 million more jobs than they create across the economy by 2030.

# Transportation's Automation Threat

One of the most widely discussed areas of disruption is the transportation industry, driven by the maturation of autonomous vehicle technology. PowerToFly specifically identifies Drivers—encompassing taxi, truck, and delivery roles—as facing imminent replacement by self-driving technology and drone delivery systems. As these technologies advance and become integrated, the need for human operators is expected to shrink substantially. This trend is a future consideration for the BLS, but its impact is already being factored into planning across logistics and personal transport sectors.

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# The Service Sector Squeeze

Service-oriented jobs that involve standardized preparation or in-person transaction handling are also vulnerable, often facing erosion from self-service or streamlining, rather than outright replacement by sophisticated AI.

The fast-food industry provides a clear example. Fast food cooks are projected to see a decline of about 13.5% in employment. This is driven by the increasing use of self-service terminals for ordering and the adoption of robotics for repetitive kitchen tasks like flipping burgers.

Even in stable sectors like education and retail, subtle shifts are occurring. Elementary school teachers and Secondary school teachers show slight negative employment projections, suggesting structural changes in enrollment or teaching methods rather than mass automation. In retail, while Retail salespersons have a minimal projected decline (less than 1%), the elimination of Cashiers speaks to a fundamental redesign of the physical point-of-sale interaction.

# Analyzing the Velocity of Change

Examining the data reveals more than just a list of fading jobs; it illustrates the velocity of technological change across different strata of the labor market. The highest percentage declines tend to cluster in roles that are either highly specialized (like Roof Bolters) or entirely reliant on manual input that has a direct digital equivalent (like Word Processors). These often require a high school diploma or less, but their total employment numbers are relatively small.

Conversely, the largest absolute job losses—Cashiers, General Office Clerks, and Customer Service Reps—come from sectors with massive employment bases. This is significant because the economic and social dislocation caused by absorbing hundreds of thousands of displaced cashiers and clerks into new sectors is a far larger public concern than the proportional shrinking of a few thousand niche positions, even if the latter are technologically doomed faster on a percentage basis. If a regional economy is heavily dependent on administrative processing centers, the projected 26% drop in Data Entry Keyers represents a deep, localized crisis, even if the national picture is dominated by cashier losses.

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# Preparing for the Pivot

The takeaway from these declining lists should not be paralysis, but strategic action. As the WEF report stresses, continuous learning, upskilling, and reskilling are becoming ongoing priorities for employers. The nature of the decline suggests that many threatened roles—clerical, data processing, routine sales—rely on routine execution, which is precisely what current AI and automation excel at.

For individuals currently in or training for these at-risk professions, the path forward involves migrating toward roles defined by complex problem-solving, creativity, human relationship management, or specialized technical oversight of the new systems. For example, while routine customer support is declining, the need for specialists who can design, train, and manage the AI chatbots mentioned by PowerToFly may increase. Similarly, a paralegal whose work involved extensive document review might pivot toward roles requiring nuanced legal strategy or expertise in complex digital evidence management.

It is essential to recognize the educational barrier inherent in this transition. Many of the most rapidly declining occupations—like Word Processors, Data Entry Keyers, and Telemarketers—typically require only a high school diploma or less. However, many of the fastest-growing roles, such as Big Data Specialists and AI/Machine Learning Specialists mentioned by the WEF, generally require specialized technical training or degrees. Bridging this gap demands significant, focused educational investment, and local workforce development programs must prioritize accessible pathways for those in high-risk, low-credential roles to enter the growing technical and green energy fields. The transition is not just about learning a new software package; for many, it requires acquiring entirely new foundational literacies to remain competitive. This structural mismatch between the skills leaving the market and the skills entering it represents the next great challenge in workforce planning.